Despite impressive export value growth, Việt Nam’s coffee industry is facing a drop in output for export due to prolonged heat and drought.

HÀ NỘI — Coffee exports are expected to reach an estimated US$2.9 billion in the first five months of this year, representing a rise of 43.9 per cent over the same period last year on rising prices despite a drop of 3.9 per cent in volume to 833,000 tonnes, according to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development’s statistics.

Coffee export prices averaged $4,208 per tonne in May, 11.7 per cent higher than April and 63.6 per cent higher than May 2023. Prices averaged $3,428 per tonne from January through May, up 49.9 per cent over the same period last year.

Despite impressive export value growth, Việt Nam’s coffee industry is facing a drop in output for export due to prolonged heat and drought.

Since the beginning of the crop season in October 2023, Việt Nam has exported more than 1.2 million tonnes of coffee, meaning that inventory is low while prices remain high.

Việt Nam Coffee Association (Vicofa) predicted that Việt Nam's coffee exports might fall by 20 per cent in the 2023-24 crop season to 1.336 million tonnes.

The Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) under the US Department of Agriculture, however, forecast Việt Nam’s robusta coffee output to see a slight decrease from 28 million bags to 27.9 million bags, or 1.68 million tonnes.

According to the Mercantile Exchange of Việt Nam, concerns about falling output for major coffee exporters, including Brazil and Việt Nam, will continue to boost coffee prices.

Vicofa expected coffee prices to remain at high levels in June.

The agriculture ministry, however, urged farmers not to ramp up coffee planting without following plans.

Coffee is one of seven products that fall within the scope of the European Deforestation Regulation, which will take effect by the end of this year.

Under the new rules, coffee that cannot be proven to not be linked to deforestation after December 31 will not be allowed to enter the EU.